Is there anything America loves more than a good old-fashioned baseball trade (OK, with the possible exception of a nationally televised Paula Abdul meltdown)?
Of course not. And never in recent memory have so many offseason trades left such a monumental imprint on a season.
Johan Santana. Dan Haren. Erik Bedard. Miguel Cabrera. Brad Lidge. Miguel Tejada. And we haven't even mentioned the American League's home run leader (Carlos Quentin), RBI leader (Josh Hamilton) and stolen-base leader (Carlos Gomez), or the National League's ERA leader (Edinson Volquez) yet. They were all involved in trades just this past winter. What a concept.
But not all those offseason deals are working out the way we expected when they hit the transactions column. So let's take a look at which trades have had the biggest impact so far:
1. THE DAN HAREN EXTRAVAGANZA
(A's send Haren and RHP Connor Robertson to the Diamondbacks for LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Greg Smith, 1B Chris Carter, OF Carlos Gonzalez, OF Aaron Cunningham and LHP Brett Anderson).
Haren
The whole idea of any trade, theoretically, is to make both teams better. So it's tough to beat this one. Arizona wouldn't have the best record in baseball without Haren. But this deal is just as responsible for the A's being 22-14.
Haren has ripped off six quality starts, so he's been as good as advertised. Meanwhile, the A's have gone 10-3 in games started by Eveland and Smith; Anderson is 5-1 in Class A; Gonzalez is hitting .343, with a .410 on-base percentage, in Triple-A. So this trade has set up the A's to be good for years -- just what Billy Beane had in mind.
"Billy knew we had depth that we'd probably talk about," Arizona GM Josh Byrnes said. "So they came out of this with quality and quantity. And for us to get a starting pitcher at Dan Haren's level without getting into free agency … was something that really fit."
Scout's View: "Probably as good a baseball deal as you'll see. Arizona did a hell of a job recognizing this was their chance to win and going out and getting a guy like Haren, and still keeping their top tier of prospects. And Oakland got guys who can help them for a long time."
2. SANTANA-MANIA
(Mets get Johan Santana from the Twins for OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Phil Humber, RHP Kevin Mulvey and RHP Deolis Guerra).
Santana
True, this deal hasn't propelled the Mets into first place. Also true: Santana is "only" 3-2, with a 2.91 ERA. But he's also tied for the league lead in strikeouts. And his bullpen has already blown two saves for him. And he left one of those two losses trailing the Braves, 1-0, in the eighth inning. So he ought to be 6-1. But even at 3-2, he's still been a definite upgrade on, say, Brian Lawrence.
It's a little tougher to judge the Twins' end, since Gomez -- the only player from this trade currently in Minnesota -- is still just an often-charismatic work in progress. On the one hand, as he proved Wednesday, he's a cycle waiting to happen. On the other, it took that cycle to nudge his on-base percentage to a measly .306. In terms of defense, one scout said, "I don't see a whole lot of difference between him and Torii [Hunter], other than name and reputation." But in terms of offense, the same scout said that he's "like a toolbox without a key."
And there's a sidebar to this story that has left its mark on the season, too. The aftermath of not trading for Santana still hangs over the Yankees -- and will keep on hanging unless Phil Hughes turns into an ace or Santana blows out a rotator cuff. Or possibly both.
Scout's View: "Think about where the Mets would be without Santana. If they didn't have Santana, they'd have been holding their breath, wondering if Pedro [Martinez] was going down, or how many times he'd go down. So just knowing you have a guy this good going out there every five days is a huge psychological advantage."
3. OUT ON A LIDGE
(Phillies get Brad Lidge and IF Eric Bruntlett from the Astros for OF Michael Bourn, RHP Geoff Geary and 3B Mike Costanzo).
Lidge
There were lots of people who had their doubts about Lidge -- and his fit for a judgmental town like Philadelphia. Well, never mind. The Phillies, shockingly, have the second-best bullpen ERA in the National League. And it all starts with the closer.
Lidge has spun off 16 straight appearances without allowing an earned run. And since he found his arm slot for his slider two weeks ago, he has been ridiculous. He has faced 31 hitters in that span. Only three have reached base. Meanwhile, the pivotal figure from Houston's end -- Bourn -- is hitting .195 with a .272 OBP.
Scout's View: "Lidge looks like the Lidge of old. Bourn plays great defense. And when he gets on base, it's a double [because he's 13 for 13 in steals]. But is he going to get on base enough? Is he going to hit good pitching? The jury is out on that."
4. JUST JOSHING
(Rangers get Josh Hamilton from the Reds for RHP Edinson Volquez and LHP Danny Herrera)
Hamilton
Was there a more fascinating deal than this one last winter? Hamilton has made it all the way back from self-induced drug oblivion to rank, in one scout's words, as "one of the 10 most talented players in baseball, just in pure tools and raw talent." And clearly, he's located the key to his toolbox. He's leading the majors in RBIs (36), and he's third only to Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis in the AL in extra-base hits (18).
But Volquez, whom Texas initially force-fed into the big leagues at too young an age, has been writing a spectacular comeback saga himself. He leads the league in ERA (1.06) and lowest slugging percentage allowed (just .238). And he has become the first Reds pitcher since the 1912 invention of earned runs to start a season by allowing no more than one earned run in each of seven straight starts. So the only thing that stops us from placing this trade higher on this list is that, despite these heroics, both teams have been massive disappointments.
Scout's View: "I'm not sure how to rate this one. It's a high-impact trade that hasn't impacted either team."
5. ERIK THE GREAT
(Mariners get Erik Bedard from the Orioles for CF Adam Jones, LHP George Sherrill, RHP Chris Tillman, RHP Kam Mickolio and LHP Tony Butler.)
Bedard
Here's another trade that's tough to measure. Outside of a short DL stint, Bedard has been terrific, allowing a total of only seven earned runs in his five starts. But maybe this deal proves there's only so much of an impact one starting pitcher can make. His team is 11-19 when he doesn't start.
Meanwhile, Sherrill is second in the league in saves; Jones is working his way toward stardom; the upwardly mobile Tillman is limiting the Eastern League to a .198 batting average against him. And maybe the biggest impact on the Orioles, said an official of one club, was the culture change: "After 10 years of being stuck in a short-term mind-set, just the commitment to trade Bedard and [Miguel] Tejada, and to bring back some young talent and finally rebuild, is a really important step they had to take."
Scout's View: "I love Erik Bedard. But honestly, I thought Baltimore kicked [Seattle's] butt in this deal. Sherrill has done an unbelievable job. Adam Jones has star potential. And Tillman … I mean, wow. Now if they take Sherrill and move him at the deadline and turn him into something else that can help them, the Orioles made a tremendous deal."
REST OF THE TOP 10
6. Braves-Tigers (RHP Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria): "At this point, Atlanta has won that deal," said one scout. "Jurrjens [4-2, 2.84] has been their most consistent starter."
TRIVIALITY
Only two active pitchers have started an All-Star Game one summer and then been traded in the following offseason -- and coincidentally, they were once traded for each other. Can you name them? (Answer later.)
7. White Sox-Diamondbacks (OF Carlos Quentin for 1B Chris Carter, who was later traded to Oakland): "He's made a tremendous impact on the White Sox in a short period of time," one NL executive said of Quentin. "He got logjammed in that [Arizona] system a little bit, so he got easy to overlook. But the talent was always there. In my experience, most evaluators look for reasons to cross guys off the list versus reasons to put them on. It's easier to say no than yes. And this guy was a classic case."
8. Orioles-Astros (SS Miguel Tejada for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, RHP Dennis Sarfate, LHP Troy Patton and 3B Mike Constanzo): Baseball people are all over the map on the quality of the Orioles' return in this deal, although, as one executive put it, "the fact that they got anything good for that guy is amazing." But if the only thing you know about Tejada this season is that he aged two years, pay attention: He was last seen hitting .331. "He's been much better defensively than most people thought, too," one scout said. "Looks like a recharged guy."
Miller
9. Tigers-Marlins (Miguel Cabrera and LHP Dontrelle Willis for LHP Andrew Miller, OF Cameron Maybin, C Mike Rabelo, RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogia De La Cruz and RHP Dallas Trahern): We won't be able to judge Florida's half of this deal until about 2010. And Willis has been a mess. But the surprise is that Cabrera has been: (a) an offensive disappointment, (b) such a defensive disaster at third base that he had to be shifted to first within three weeks, and (c) so lackadaisical that players on other teams are privately questioning whether he flicked on his cruise-control switch after signing an eight-year, $153.3-million contract this spring. "I expected him to come in there and be superman," said one scout. "He's been anything but that."
10. Rays-Twins (RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHP Eduardo Morlan for OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie): Six weeks into the season, the Garza-Young debate is still raging. "This was one of those change-of-scenery deals," said one scout, "because both clubs had about had it with the makeup issues of both guys. Right now, Garza looks like he's going to be a big rotation piece for that team as they go forward. But I'm not so sure about Delmon anymore. He swings at everything. And he's not a very good breaking-ball hitter. You spin it, and he can't lay off it. And if he hits it, he doesn't do much with it."
Sunday, May 11, 2008
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